History has shown that revolutionary leaders are always difficult to replace especially if they have led the revolution through war and peace for long periods.
From the Editor’s desk with Nevanji Madanhire
Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov, best known as Lenin, was the founder of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, after leading the revolution that toppled the provisional government that followed the fall of Tsar Nicholas II in February 1917.
When it became clear that his days on earth were numbered — he had three strokes in quick succession; in May 1922 he had his first stroke after which he lost his power of speech and his right arm and leg were paralyzed; in December of the same year came another stoke and; the third followed in March 1923 and turned him into a living corpse. (Russiapedia)
He died on January 21 1924. The fight to succeed him intensified when it became an open secret that he was dying. The fight was personified by Joseph Stalin and Leon Trotsky. Stalin eventually prevailed although he wasn’t Lenin’s favoured successor; Lenin had advocated for the removal of Stalin.
Mao Zedong, leader of the Chinese Communist Party, had been supreme leader of China for 27 years when he died on September 9 1976. He had not put into place a succession framework. But there were two people who had been labelled successors, Lin Biao and Liu Shaoqi. But Mao outlived both when he designed that they be disgraced and killed during the Cultural Revolution.
Mao’s failing health opened the way for in-fighting between numerous factions within his party in the struggle to succeed him. Just before he died, his party had been torn into three factions: radicals led by Jiang Qing and the Gang of Four, reformists led by Deng Xiaoping, and an intermediary faction led by Hua Guofeng. Hua claimed that he was Mao’s preferred successor on the strength of letter Mao had written to him proclaiming, “With you in charge, I am at ease”. (Wikipedia)
Hua briefly took over the reins when Mao died and ruled until December 1978 when he was defeated by Deng.
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In North Korea, Kim Il sung ruled for 46 years – from 1948 to 1994. He had led his country to independence after fighting Japanese occupation. He founded the Kim dynasty that has ruled the country since his death. During his rule he thrived on a personality cult. After his death, his son Kim Jong Il took over; who was in turn succeeded by his own son Kim Jong Un.
Fidel Castro led Cuba for over half a century. When he became unfit to rule, he handed over power to his younger brother Raul.
Back home, Robert Mugabe has been at the helm of the ruling party and the country for more than 35 years. During the latter years of the liberation war, when he took over the leadership he is supposed to have re-united the liberation forces which were divided and often at loggerheads with each other. Of course this position is still bitterly contested by other players during the struggle. But the fact that he emerged from the war as the undisputed leader points to his decisive role.
He has so far ruled the country for 33 years and is likely to continue for at least another five years following the mandate he got controversially after the July 31 harmonised elections. Nearly 90, most in his party had thought that after winning he would surrender power quickly to a successor. This is unlikely to happen due to the infighting in his party shown by the cutthroat competition for provincial leadership posts.
Until the infighting of recent weeks, Zanu PF had denied that there were factions tearing it apart. That they exist can no longer be denied. That Defence minister Emmerson Mnangagwa leads one such factions and Vice-President Joice Mujuru another cannot be disputed either. Analysts say they have identified another faction whose leadership is still unknown. The existence of three factions may put Zimbabwe in the situation China found itself in towards Mao’s demise.
Many consider Mnangagwa a hardliner who would continue on the same path Mugabe is treading, that way he is considered similar to Hua . Mujuru is considered reformist, perhaps like Deng. But all this mere speculation, none of the protagonist has come out in the open to propound what they stand for.
No one knows which of the factional leaders Mugabe favours. Some designate Mnangagwa as the preferred heir, but no one knows on what basis this is so.
Others say he, in fact, prefers the lady because at the 2004 Zanu PF congress he hinted that Mujuru could go even higher than just the vice-presidency.
But the politics of succession are much more complicated than the mere anointing of successors. It could be the ultimate successor is lurking somewhere in the darkness. Often when two hyenas are fighting bitterly over a carcass, they forget about food and leave another seemingly uninterested hyena to have the dinner.
Interestingly, the succession fight in Zanu PF is not based on any known ideological difference between the groups. The country is in a mess economically which calls for a leadership that will pull the country forward. This fact doesn’t seem to be the drive behind the factionalism. Many for this reason see the fighting in the ruling party as pathetic.
But, what does the Zanu PF rank and file think about these fights? Are the common people in the party so gullible that they can be so easily manipulated by these faction leaders as shown by their sheep-like acquiescence? At face value this might seem the case. The factionalism has existed now for over a decade, or more, and the people in the party have been deeply divided along factional lines. It would seem there is no thinking outside the Mnangagwa-Mujuru matrix. Zanu PF supporters must now begin to think this infighting is like mudwrestling. Not only will the old wisdom come true that to keep someone down in the mud one also has to remain in the mud. This is not good for Zanu PF or for the country for that matter.
What is needed in Zanu PF is an alternative centre of thought that by its sheer brilliance will dazzle the old guard and sweep the ancient regime away. Opposition politics have failed to achieve this. There must be a voice of reason somewhere!
