The recent split in the MDC led by Morgan Tsvangirai has left Zimbabwe’s opposition very weak.
Sunday View with Zechariah Mushawatu
Without delving into the justifications for actions taken by either of the two camps involved, it is imperative to give an analysis of what is most likely going to transpire if Zimbabwe goes to the next election with a divided opposition or a coalition of small opposition parties that does not include Tsvangirai’s MDC.
It’s a public secret that the Movement for Democratic Change being led by Tsvangirai is broke.
It’s having trouble paying its workers. Donors have abandoned Tsvangirai and he has taken to mobilising funds from MPs in his party, the National Council and general members of the party.
This route is unlikely going to provide the MDC with enough money to function properly, let alone run an election campaign in the future. The party is also supposed to share an amount of US$3 million with Zanu PF from the Zimbabwe government but it’s an amount that will not take the party far.
Hence the biggest challenge Tsvangirai’s MDC faces in removing Zanu PF in the next election is funding: it’s needed for the party to survive till 2018 and it’s required for a successful campaign when that year approaches.
Biti’s renewal team faces an entirely different problem altogether. Recent media reports show that they do not have many active supporters on the ground.
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It is important to note that active supporters are those that attend rallies and attend party functions.
Tsvangirai has a lot of those but Biti does not. The importance of active supporters is that they give an impression that a political party enjoys massive support from the public. This is very important for a political party for poorly attended rallies give a very bad image of a party.
That being said, it is important to point out that though Biti and his renewal team may not have a lot of active supporters, it is possible that they appeal to a sizeable chunk of the electorate, particularly urban voters, many of whom may not be in the business of attending rallies, which means they could take away a lot of voters from Tsvangirai in the next election which will give an advantage to Zanu PF.
A proposed grand coalition of small parties including Biti’s renewal team is most likely going to be weak in comparison to Tsvangirai’s MDC, but it could be strong enough to gain a few seats in parliament and deny Tsvangirai victory in the presidential election by dividing the vote if they field one candidate.
A component that is most likely going to strengthen the proposed grand coalition, if it emerges, is ample funding that will make their campaign more effective.
All the scenarios discussed above will lead to a victory for Zanu PF in the next election. Here are scenarios that could lead to its defeat.
Tsvangirai calls it quits at the next MDC-T congress that has been scheduled for late 2014. A new leader takes control of the MDC, preferably Nelson Chamisa who appears to have a lot of national appeal and is easy to sell to the electorate. This will make the party appear democratic and differentiate it from other African parties in which leaders refuse to leave positions of power.
It will also open up the much-needed funding as erstwhile funders of the party seem to have a problem with Tsvangirai, not the whole MDC project. Furthermore, this would weaken the renewal team as most of their arguments seem to be based on the fact that Tsvangirai is clinging to power.
The renewal team and Tsvangirai’s MDC patch things up and go to elections as one party. This will pose a bigger threat to Zanu PF and could lead to its defeat. However, it is important to note that this scenario is very unlikely as the renewal team seems to have crossed the Rubicon.
Tsvangirai’s MDC and all important smaller opposition parties form a grand coalition against Zanu PF. This could unlock much-needed funding for Tsvangirai’s MDC and prevent splitting of the vote in a way that will give Zanu PF an advantage.
It is very important to note that none of the three scenarios proposed above could lead to the defeat of Zanu PF if care is not taken to ensure that the next election is free and fair.
Another scenario that has not been mentioned because it does not lead to the dislodging of Zanu PF is a possible loose coalition of the renewal team and a faction of moderates in Zanu PF.
