PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe’s advanced age and lack of clear succession plan could be the reason behind resurgent political violence in the country, analysts have said.
By Everson Mushava
The country has been rocked by a spate of intra-party and interparty violence in the past few weeks despite the fact that elections are still two years away.
Last week, police and MDC-T youths were involved in running battles after the opposition party’s supporters took to the streets of Harare on successive days demanding Mugabe’s resignation.
There have also been incidents of Zanu PF members fighting among themselves as divisions in the party continue to widen over the 91-year-old leader’s succession.
Zanu PF is divided into two main factions, one supporting First Lady Grace Mugabe (G40) and another supporting Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa as the party begins to prepare for life after Mugabe.
The skirmishes have raised fears the country is sliding back to a culture of political violence, which saw Zimbabwe being isolated by the international community, especially around 2008.
Prominent academic, Ibbo Mandaza said the violence was bound to worsen as the race to succeed Mugabe reached the home stretch.
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He said the internal clashes that continued to erupt in Zanu PF were an indication of the rising tension over the succession of the party’s longtime leader, who has remained coy about his retirement plans.
“Tension is rising within factions of Zanu PF and the opposition itself. There is fear that Mugabe can go anytime and everyone wants to be positioned,” Mandaza said.
“This is causing tension and internal violence. Zanu PF also believes that the succession politics could weaken the party and MDC-T could image stronger.
“That is why they are targeting the opposition supporters apart from fighting among themselves.”
The former top civil servant said violence would increase as the problem was further compounded by the fact that no one from the ruling Zanu PF was denouncing the clashes.
Political analyst Eldred Masunungure said Zimbabwe was in perpetual election mode, but violence was being exacerbated by intraparty factionalism caused by the succession wars in Zanu PF.
He said Mugabe’s advanced age was not making things any better because it caused jostling as members strategically positioned themselves to take over from him.
“They are calculating that their leader is too old and they want to take over from him,” Masunungure said.
He said the major problem was the Zanu PF infighting, with the attack of opposition parties being a political gimmick meant to divert people’s attention from the internal strife.
Zimbabwe has a long history of political violence that began soon after independence when Mugabe deployed the North Korean trained Fifth Brigade to Midlands and Matabeleland where over 20 000 Zapu supporters were massacred.
The carnage only ended when Zapu and Zanu signed the Unity Accord in December 1987. After a brief lull, the violence resurfaced after the formation of MDC in 1999.
The worst violence post Gukurahundi was in 2008 when an estimated 300 MDC-T supporters reportedly died at the hands of their Zanu PF rivals and members of the security forces.
However, the situation improved during the duration of the inclusive government between Mugabe and the MDC formations, leading to peaceful 2013 general elections.
Zanu PF has not recovered from a purge that began in December last year and claimed the scalps of former vice-president Joice Mujuru, as well as several top party officials that were accused of trying to topple Mugabe. The fissures between Grace’s supporters and those fighting on Mnangagwa’s corner have been flagged as a potential source of serious conflict as the end of Mugabe’s reign draws near.
People’s Democratic Party spokesperson Jaco Mafume said Zanu PF members feared that if Mugabe did not handle his succession well, the opposition would capitalise on it.
“Zanu PF has a DNA of violence,” he said. “They have an old man as their office bearer and the tensions of a successor and the fear that the opposition might gain while they engage in political cannibalism.”
But Harare-based political analyst Takura Zhangazha said the violence was now a culture in Zimbabwe that went beyond Zanu PF.
“Violence is sadly part of the political campaign fabric of a majority of our political parties,” he said.
“This is largely because party supporters are rarely engaged by their leaders on issues of value and principle in between elections, nor are they engaged on issues to do with peaceful protests or mobilisation strategies. “Violence never goes away as an undemocratic political strategy.”
Zhangazha said the major political parties in the country were saddled by factionalism, hence the violence.
“The violence has more to do with internal factions than it is predicated on election campaigns for 2018,” he said. “But it is still part of an unfortunate political culture of violence in our politics.”
Researcher Dewa Mavhinga said failure by the ruling elite to denounce violence was the reason why the scourge was on the rise.
He said the police were acting in a partisan manner and that encouraged violence.
“With the on-going fracturing and splintering of Zanu PF, political violence will get worse because it will not only be directed at parties outside like the MDC, but will also target internal factions, and the police will likely have its own factions that mirror Zanu PF factions,” he said.
MDC-T spokesperson Obert Gutu said the resurgence of political violence shows that Zanu PF was afraid the factional fights gave MDC-T an advantage.
He said worse things were yet to come as the country heads towards the 2018 general elections.
“All this has unsettled the Zanu PF regime and the ruling party is now feeling very insecure,” he said.
“You will also note that the deep-rooted factional fights within Zanu PF have caused a lot of political instability within the ruling elite.”
Mugabe recently denied reports that Zanu PF was ravaged by factionalism and accused the private media of creating stories about internal fights in the party.
