This week we conclude our series on fringe parties which we began by profiling Job Sikhala of the MDC99 party. We had a chat with Simba Makoni of the Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn formation; we also featured Dumiso Dabengwa of the revived Zapu and Welshman Ncube, the secretary-general and heir apparent of the contraption called MDC-M.
This week, to regulate the anomaly we feature its president Arthur Mutambara who seems to enjoy talking to Violet Gonda of SWRadio rather than local scribes. We would have featured Zanu Ndonga but no one knows if it still exists. We haven’t heard anything from Vurayayi Zembe of the Democratic Party in a long time. Any party we haven’t featured is, therefore, not worthy of its salt.
Many readers may question the use of the word “fringe” to describe these parties. The MDC-M for example is part of the inclusive government running our country today so its members might argue that they are not a fringe party. But we all know that its leadership is where it is by dint of fortune — none of those fronting this party in government was elected into office and many in local government councils are quitting it to join MDC-T.
The MDC-M’s luck is likely to run out sooner rather than later. In its present form it can hardly be compared to the Liberal Democrats of the UK who after many years on the fringe made an impact in this year’s general election forcing a coalition government for the first time in living memory.
The question to ask is: Out of these fringe parties, which one is likely to have an effect on the Zanu PF/MDC-T political matrix in the next elections which are likely to be held next year?
In this regard Zapu is going to be very interesting. Two things are likely to happen to this resurrected party. Either it will go the way of Zanu Ndonga — that is fade quietly into oblivion — or it will reclaim Joshua Nkomo’s “20 seats”. Zapu under Nkomo never really became a national party in the strictest sense of the word — except perhaps in the 1960s — but no matter what happened, come an election it would always win its 20 seats in the Matabeleland provinces where Nkomo originated.
For many years Zanu Ndonga also just existed on the strength of the Chipinge vote. No matter what happened the Chipinge constituencies would always vote Zanu Ndonga. Chipinge was the home of its founding president, the charismatic Ndabaningi Sithole.
Nkomo and Sithole were stalwarts in the liberation struggle and their charismatic leadership styles ensured that their parties thrived. But with Sithole’s  death Zanu Ndonga’s fortunes plummeted; besides an occasional press release no one knows if the party still has any structures to talk about.
Nkomo was forced into an unholy alliance with Zanu PF after gukurahundi and his party was swallowed totally by Robert Mugabe’s party. Eleven years after his death some former members of Zapu led by Dabengwa have decided to revive it. If Dabengwa et al also manage to revive the party’s regional appeal then Zapu can reclaim its 20 seats and that will likely change completely the political picture in Zimbabwe.
Paradoxically the 20 seats will not be Zanu PF seats but MDC-T ones. With the demise of Zapu, the majority of the people of Matabeleland, who have never loved Zanu PF, swung to Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC. In 2005 when the MDC split the majority still stuck with Tsvangirai while a small minority clung to Welshman Ncube and the late Gibson Sibanda. The party head-hunted for a leader and came up with Arthur Mutambara. They have almost totally lost their grip on Matabeleland.
If Zapu reclaims its 20 seats what will this mean for Zimbabwe? We are likely to have a situation in which Zapu will have 20 seats in parliament while the MDC-T will have maybe 40 and Zanu PF 50. None of the three parties will be able to govern on its own, so a coalition government would be the very likely outcome.
Zapu will become the Liberal Democrats of Zimbabwe but who would they rather coalesce with?
The fact that they snatched their chunk of seats from MDC-T means they are unlikely to want to have much to do with Tsvangirai’s party. The natural choice would therefore be Zanu PF.
Many people as we speak think that the revival of Zapu is a Zanu PF project. Their thinking is based on the very scenario just described. Dabengwa and other senior members of the new Zapu such as Thenjiwe Lesabe are former members of the Zanu PF politburo. Their political fortunes had waned because the people who had supported them all along had become disgruntled with the Unity Accord which put them in the same bed as their archenemy Zanu PF. Very few, if any, of the top old Zapu leadership who were now in Zanu PF were winning elections. Dabengwa himself was being beaten by mere children in general elections and was surviving through Mugabe’s largesse.
There are several members of the old Zapu who have remained in Zanu PF whose lives are intractably linked to their comrade-in-arms Dabengwa. They are not winning elections either and are therefore also surviving on Mugabe’s magnanimity.
Mugabe sees a lot of advantage in the revival of Zapu hence we have not heard anything from the Zanu PF information department disparaging this project. Zapu will deliver Mugabe’s long-wished-for life presidency. Zimbabweans are faced with a grim scenario of a perpetual Zanu PF suzerainty.

Nevanji Madanhire

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