Leonard Makombe
THEY say “figures do not lie,” but in Zimbabwe statistical data is of limited use as it is either unavailable or antiquated making it practically impossible to measure social, economic and demographic activities taking place in the country.
Anyone interested in getting statistics in Zimbabwe is naturally directed to various government departments — particularly the Zimbabwe National Statistical Agency (Zimstat), the main source of official statistics in Zimbabwe.
Zimstat, without a substantive director for close to six years, is mandated to play a co-ordination and supervisory role within the National Statistical System, but logging onto their website gives one the impression that statistics do not matter in Zimbabwe.
Figures are outdated with the unemployment rate said to be at 9,3% when it is now estimated to be at 90%, while literacy rates are at 90,5% “as at 2004”!
It is almost impossible to ascertain simple statistics like the total number of pupils leaving schools each year and how many of those get employed thereafter.
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This is surprising in this “information age” where all necessary data should be readily accessible but in Zimbabwe the only available figures are useless, outdated or both — you mainly get data collected during the time when the country’s statistical office was still reliable in the 1990s.
The net effect of the archaic enumeration system has been a total failure to statistically account for what is produced, mined, sold, imported or exported by the country.
As Tony Hawkins, a lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe Graduate School of Management, said during a presentation two weeks ago that a substantial — unknown — proportion of consumption spending is funded offshore.
Zimbabwe is grappling in the dark trying to quantify the amount repatriated by its citizens living abroad.
Other countries are able to enumerate almost everything including minute details such as the number of buttons sold during a given period but Zimbabwe has failed to give details on how much diamond has been mined and sold so far, leading to the recent fight between Finance Minister Tendai Biti and Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation (ZMDC) .
Biti last week ordered an audit of diamond sales revenues. He said figures on his desk indicated Treasury had so far got $62,1 million, while ZMDC and the Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe indicated that he had received $174,2 million.
Marange’s alluvial diamonds were expected to boost the country’s economic revival but a failure to enumerate what is taking place could be a pointer to massive leakages.
Diamonds are not the only precious stones lacking accountability. The same can be said about gold and platinum production.
One has to muddle through other social, economic and demographical information to come up with some data on Zimbabwe. While Zimstat has failed on its mandate to collect data, other bodies such as local authorities are equally inadequate as they are unable to give figures on houses constructed or hospital admissions during a given period.
Investors could be impatient and may not be able to piece together the data scattered across several offices in different departments and this could prove costly to the country’s intention to attract investment.
Businessperson and past president of the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce Luxon Zembe said: “One of our biggest challenges is lack of accurate, up to date and sufficient data.”
Zembe said knowing who was producing what and in what quantities would give both local and international investors pointers on how much they could pour in and be expected to get as returns.
He said in the absence of figures on how much the country consumes, it was difficult for investors and policy makers to plan.
This basic information, John Robertson, a business consultant said was important in decision making by local authorities and central government.
Robertson said it was difficult to establish, for example, the vehicle population in the country yet it was important for road network development.
“An increase in traffic requires a decision to reduce congestion maybe through road dualisation,” said Robertson.
He said the policy makers would make better decisions if they used correct figures.
“If you guess the numbers, you are not going to achieve what you want,” said Robertson.
Using the rule of the thumb in policy making and implementation comes at a cost as figures are regularly revised leaving planners wondering where they are going.
This was the case with tobacco production last season which was initially projected at 77 000 000 kgs only to be revised upwards by 16 000 000 kgs.
Just when market watchers thought that was the final figure, tobacco figures were further revised upwards to 115 000 000 kgs and by the time the season closed, 123 000 000 kgs had been auctioned.
Analysts said players in various sectors were also to blame as they had a culture of not taking part in data collection or data compilation.
“They do not attach value to data collection,” Zembe said suggesting that legislation be passed to compel companies to release data. Zembe suggested that legislation be passed compelling all businesses to fall under a representative body which could be used for data collection.
In the absence of clear and reliable data, the country remains susceptible to manipulation by business, prejudicing government of revenue. Government planning is also heavily inhibited by abject failure to have reliable ways of enumerating and quantifying all economic, social and demographic activities.