Sadc was clear on one thing namely that all reforms spelt out in the Global Political Agreement be implemented first before any national elections are held. One part to the GPA, Zanu PF might wish to misinform Zimbabweans on the outcome of that summit through dishonest and political spin-doctoring but the truth has already been known.
But why is Zanu PF dishonest on an issue that is so straightforward? The answer lies in an undoubted truth namely that if the next elections are held after the GPA has been implemented according to its letter and spirit, the former ruling party, in power for over three decades, will be swept off Zimbabwe’s political landscape once for all.
Not only will this be extremely humiliating to the strongmen who have run the country since the end of colonial rule in 1980 —and have benefited almost exclusively from the fruits of our independence — but it may also open the strongmen to litigation locally and/or at the hands of the international justice system.
The sentences meted out to two former African strongmen, Charles Taylor and Hosni Mubarak, have set precedents that must scare any African ruler who may, for one reason or another, find himself out of power. Taylor of Liberia was sentenced to 50 years imprisonment for crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court based at The Hague. He had supplied arms used in the Sierra Leon civil war using dirty diamonds money. Mubarak of Egypt had allowed the massacre of his own people during popular demonstrations that eventually led to his ouster. He was sentenced to life imprisonment by Egyptian courts.
Zimbabwean strongmen could also face the same fate considering what they have done to their own people in the last 30 years or so. They don’t like this to happen to them.
Many analysts have said the Luanda summit spells the endgame for Mugabe and his party. This might well be so but this also means, before the final whistle is blown, the strongman and his party will put up a fight to the finish.
There is no incentive for Mugabe to accept what Sadc directed in Luanda. In the recent past, Mugabe has declared that he would not retire for the simple reason that his party would crumble without him. Former ally Enos Nkala last month reiterated this after his brief meeting with Mugabe at an airport in Bulawayo. If his party collapses in the aftermath of his retirement, a fate for him such as that of Taylor or Mubarak cannot be entirely ruled out.
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The fight to avert such an end has already started and has been accentuated after the Luanda summit. It is two-pronged: it is political and military. While the politicians are fighting to scupper the whole constitution-making process, the military are threatening to take over in the event of a loss in the elections.
By scuppering the constitution-making process the politicians are banking on Mugabe’s constitutional right to dissolve parliament, after which he can rule by decree. He can call for elections under the old constitution, thereafter, which he will win by all means necessary such as the use of the military which has already declared its unwavering support.
After Luanda, it is disheartening to see that the other two parties in the GPA, have not realised how advanced this Zanu PF strategy is and how it will most certainly pull the rug from under their feet. Reports in the media have interestingly said Mugabe has been outfoxed by his main rival, MDC-T president and Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, when the opposite is almost certainly true.
While the MDCs are harping on the importance of the constitution-making process in the resolution of the Zimbabwean crisis, Zanu PF is doing the opposite. It knows that a new constitution in itself is no guarantee to a free and fair election. It knows that a new constitution is only as good as the institutions that support it, and that is the strength of their stratagem. Reverting to the old Lancaster House constitution will keep intact the institutions that have kept Zanu PF in power all along. This is what Zanu PF will force to happen hence they are fighting the Copac-driven process.
The MDCs, instead of continuing to harp on the importance of the new constitution, should focus more on the reformation of the institutions that have sustained Zanu PF hegemony. They should steal a leaf from US President Barack Obama’s book. Addressing Ghanaians in the capital Accra on July 11 2009 Obama said:
“In the 21st Century, capable, reliable and transparent institutions are the key to success — strong parliaments and honest police forces; independent judges and journalists; a vibrant private sector and civil society. Those are the things that give life to democracy, because that is what matters in peoples’ lives.”He said Africa is in the hands of the brave people prepared to stand up to injustice. In Zimbabwe this can only be done if people fight for strong institutions that will act as checks and balances to those in government.
“Make no mistake: history is on the side of these brave Africans and not with those who use coups or change Constitutions to stay in power. Africa doesn’t need strongmen, it needs strong institutions,” Obama said, adding, “each nation gives life to democracy in its own way, and in line with its own traditions. But history offers a clear verdict: governments that respect the will of their own people are more prosperous, more stable and more successful than governments that do not.”
It is almost like the MDCs will accept to go for an election solely on the basis of a new constitution when we all know that the Zimbabwean crisis was not a result of a constitutional crisis but of a crisis of the constitution. The constitution could not guarantee a transfer of power in March 2008; a new constitution can also be exploited in a similar way. Therefore, any election without institutional reforms will not bring any change. Be warned!
BY NEVANJI MADANHIRE
