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Mugabe or Tsvangirai win won’t change much —analysts

ZIMBABWEANS should not expect radical changes if either President Robert Mugabe or Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai wins the forthcoming elections, analysts have said.

BY PATRICE MAKOVA

The two are the leading contenders in elections expected in June or July this year, while MDC leader, Professor Welshman Ncube is placed third in the race.

Political analyst, Jabusile Shumba said while a Tsvangirai win would be a democratic breakthrough, it would take his MDC-T government time to economically and politically transform the country.

“If Tsvangirai wins, the nation will be greeted by euphoria similar to 1980, although it will take some time for the change to translate into material benefit,” he said. “Economic transformation and democratic consolidation processes will take a bit of time.”

Shumba said on the other hand, a victory by Mugabe would signal continued “patrimonial politics, clientelism and a democratic reversal”.

He said Zimbabwe needed change at a political level.

“Politicians need to be reminded that they are there to serve at the pleasure of citizens, which is the tenet of democracy,” said Shumba.

University of Zimbabwe political science lecturer, Shakespeare Hamauswa said if Tsvangirai won, it was unlikely that far-reaching policy changes would be introduced because of the entrenched interests of Zanu PF and securocrats, especially in the mining and farming sectors.

“There will be change in policy, but it will not be radical. An MDC-T government is likely to implement those reforms which Zanu PF rejected during the era of the GNU,” he said.

Hamauswa said a Tsvangirai government was likely to embrace an indigenisation policy which does not support the grabbing of companies for free.

He said Zimbabwe’s international status would be restored, while western sanctions would be removed.

“Political stability in the country will depend on his method of ruling and the way he handles elements within Zanu PF and securocrats,” said Hamauswa.

He said electoral victory by Mugabe would mean that the Zanu PF politburo would continue determining the destiny of the country, while cabinet would be there just to rubber stamp its decisions.

Another political analyst, Thabani Nyoni said a Tsvangirai win would likely generate a lot of euphoria around issues of key reforms such as those to do with media and security sector.

“But once people are in power, the dynamics and priorities may change from key reforms to delivery of service,” he said.

The Bulawayo Agenda executive director noted a Tsvangirai win would be a test of character for Zanu PF as to whether the party can peacefully hand over power.

He said Mugabe’s loss could mean the end of Zanu PF as a political party.

Nyoni said Zanu PF used to be sustained because there was no separation between government and the party.

“Removing Zanu PF from the state is tantamount to suffocating the party,” he said. “That is why it may be difficult for the party to hand over power if it loses. The party may as well follow the route of Kenya’s Kanu and Zambia’s UNIP that completely disappeared when they lost elections.”

But Nyoni said it was unlikely that Tsvangirai would be the same person people expected him to be once he was in power. He said Tsvangirai had already shown that he could be a different person as shown by his acceptance of last week’s controversial appointments of new chiefs for the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission and the Zimbabwe Human Rights Commission.

Nyoni, a lecturer with a local university, predicted that if Tsvangirai won, there would be another electoral pact between Zanu PF and the MDC-T to safeguard the interests of the former ruling party.
He said while a new government would be under pressure to address human rights, including past abuses, this expectation was unlikely to be met.

The university lecturer said if Zanu PF won, the party would immediately address the issue of Mugabe’s succession. He said the MDC-T on the other hand would find it difficult to sustain the movement as a viable political party, resulting in frustrations and more internal fights.

“This might also signal the end of Tsvangirai’s political career,” he said. “Zanu PF will take advantage of this and appoint a few MDC officials into government. Bringing on board the opposition will weaken and divide the party.”

Nyoni said if Mugabe won the elections in a free and fair manner, the international community would not be as scathing on Zanu PF as before.

“There is going to be a move by the European Union and United States to engage and work with the government rather than confrontation as long as elections are free and fair,” he said. Nyoni was also confident that Zanu PF was capable of introducing reforms in order to win legitimacy.

15 Responses to Mugabe or Tsvangirai win won’t change much —analysts

  1. Oscar Pistorius February 24, 2013 at 2:06 pm #

    These Political ANALysts seem to have very small brains.

    They talk as if a ZanuPF win will be 100% or as if an MDC win will be 100% of the total vote count.

    Some Zimbabweans forget that the two parties are here to stay, even after elections, though the MDC may crumble faster if it lost the election -as it will

    If the MDC win the elections, there is absolutely no doubt that they will either still share government with ZanuPF directly in another GNU or through parliament where Zanu will surely retain enough seats to cause problems for the MDC when they attempt introducing their so called reforms.

    Even the nonsensical J.U.I.C.E would not see a day in parliament.

    Win or lose ZanuPF is not going anywhere!

    However, we’ve all seen that ZanuPF can easily implement its policies with the full blessing of the MDC.

    Take Indigenisation for example which the MDC now loudly opposes whenever they get a chance but their own parliamentarians overwhelmingly voted for it to be passed into Zimbabwean law.
    How can they now oppose something they voted into law?

    They had an opportunity to stop indigenisation from being made into law or to have changes made to it before becoming law. Why didnt they?

    And why do we still have people they vowed to have removed from the army, police & government?

    Do you honestly think Zanu with enough parliamentarians in parliament would allow MDC policies to sail through?

    You have to be from another planet to think that is possible.

    So, there is no doubt an Mdc win will not bring any changes to anyone because they will find it extremely difficult to do so.

    Zanu would make sure all or at least most of MDC policies are not implemented.

    However as said above, Zanu can still implement whatever it wishes with the Mdc in government, parliament or not.

    Zanu knows if the MDC lose, they will almost immediately start to crumble because that would be the end of Tsvangirayi’s political career.

    They do not expect the Mdc to just disappear & may even expect another GNU.

    What ZanuPF knows is that it can weaken the MDC by beating it in the next election & the crumbling will naturally follow within a few months.

    • Farayi February 24, 2013 at 7:46 pm #

      Wishiful thinking. There is no difference between MDC and Zanu PF. The diff is just in the heads of supporters like you. I deal with people from both parties and you will surprised at the amount of collaboration on shade deals. But to gullible supporters like you, there is a sea difference. Go on dreaming. Nothibg is going to change whoever wins. Its alooter continua

    • Chasura March 3, 2013 at 10:10 am #

      Dear Oscar

      You seem to be losing you 6th sence if you are still comparing dying pf and MDC.You must be aware that pf is near extinction, like it or not.A country like Zimbabwe can not prosper under the rule of old and fragile gosts.CHINJA ZVIKUNAKIRE Mr O VET.

  2. M. Dewah February 24, 2013 at 2:32 pm #

    Dear Oscar,
    You must start preparing for the obvious when ZANU loses election. The party will breakdown faster than you can say pistorious. Defeat in a free and fair poll is what you and your folks are staring right now come haill come what and there after history is littered with defeated former liberation parties that are now as irrelavant as Lobengula, check in Malawi check in Zambia! This time there will be no GNU and losers will be retired and made to account. Either way ZANU yakamama shamwari.

  3. soulman February 24, 2013 at 3:40 pm #

    these so called analysts must nt compare mdc 2 wth zanu. an mdc win wl def bring democratic reform, mo liberty, freedom, changed indeginisation policy. i think 4 e’ sake of peace and stability, human rights abusers wl nt b prosecuted. i feel an mdc wl do beta, nt sayin that they r nt flawless

  4. respect m February 24, 2013 at 8:27 pm #

    an MDC win will never be announced, there will be a run off, and kunotsva munhu zvakare…another GNU is looming, but this time as a Zanu PF rule with a few MDC members being taken on board to destroy the MDC, and this can also reposition Zanu PF as a credible party whereby there can be a scenario code-named ‘Operation Kubudirana Pachena’.
    This kind of operation will see flushing out of unpopular Zanu PF members and replace them by popular MDC figures such as Chamisa and Biti…

    • Gutter Poet February 25, 2013 at 10:05 am #

      A little pessimistic eh? Where do you get this pie in the sky nonsense that Biti and Chamisa are popular? They are both riding on the coat tails of Tsvangirai, just like the ZANu ministers are doing with Mr. Mugabe. It is presently difficult to tell who will form the next government but one thing that is as sure as eggs is ‘meet your new boss, same as your old boss’. The MDCT have given us a snippet of what they can do once in power and I think not much is going to change except maybe the fact that they will cash in on international goodwill but as far as I can see no earth shattering changes will visit the political landscape. If you go back to 1980, you will find that politicians have this habit of closing ranks as can be seen by parliamentarians from both sides of the benches asking for golden handshakes, MPs clamour for cars, two cars each for ministers in the last GNU and so on. What the people would like to see is an opportunity to go back to work and look after their families period. Banking on politicos is simply openning up one self to disappointment and abuse. Of course a change of government would help….but it will not be all roses, on this you can bet your last family goat.

  5. soulman February 24, 2013 at 9:30 pm #

    either way i c mdc winnin, whether zec/zanu wl announce it z anotha story! if they do nd depending on magnitude, thn anotha gnu is unlikely. mdc wl defnitly go it alone.

  6. bhekilizwe February 24, 2013 at 10:48 pm #

    i’m very disapointed in that we still have people like pistorius who still think that we still need violence in out society. i thought GNU was meant to heal wounds and learn to be tolerant. but with pistorius around we can expect another blood shed. but let me warn people like pistoriuos that the victory will be so big that infact it will the opposite of 2008. it is him and his gang that will run this time around if they decide to go the violent root. one thing for sure is that there will be no oyher GNU. As MDC we can ddo it alone. they have had thier time , then we will have our time, without them as we do not need them.

  7. Jongwe Rachembera February 25, 2013 at 1:53 am #

    Each each are thieves! They are all warming themselves at the same fire.

    • Gutter Poet February 25, 2013 at 10:06 am #

      Nailed it dead centre!

  8. Rigel Bernard February 26, 2013 at 1:20 pm #

    it will be interesting to see how things pan out post elections

  9. Mangurenje February 26, 2013 at 6:03 pm #

    These so called political analysts never cease to amaze me.Zanu pf is a political machinery with Mugabe as a mare head.Where would u find a 90 year old ruling 13m people? The best trick that MDC can do is to cry very loud like Oliver Twist before, during and after elections and allege that zanu is cheating. That way maybe they can be drafted into the GNU again. I cannot see mdc winning elections now when they failed in 2008.With shops full SA chicken, beer, sausages etc, i can forsee urban voter apathy at above 70%.The guys will be busy braeing those 2 days.

  10. Gugugu Magorira March 3, 2013 at 4:58 am #

    Tsvangirai is worse than Mugabe,he looks and sounds clever yet he is not.He is the worst dictator.

  11. wordwriter March 3, 2013 at 12:17 pm #

    Alleged analyst J Sibanda is out of his mind. Have you reached grade 7 yet? If Zanupf rules it will be over a demoralized, discouraged, intimidated Zmbabwe ruled by fat cat chefs who will continue to rake in the billions, while an MDCT win will rule over a jubilant Zimbabwe full of hope and faith in the future. An MDC win will be greeted by promises of aid by rich governments and the lifting of all sanctions. The economy will be freed up, interest rates will plummet and corrupt deals will be cancelled. Criminals who are bent on destroying the country while enriching themselves will be offered free holidays in hotel chikurubi. For the first time entrepreneurs will have freedom to get into business without being disturbed by chefs who want to hijack their idea, and army colonels will not be found dead in cars found on railtracks. Please J. Sibanda, never again claim tob e an analyst!!!!!!

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