BUY Zimbabwe says the country’s agriculture sector’s productivity is tied to external inputs, which exposes structural gaps and leaves farmers vulnerable to foreign currency shortages, supply chain disruptions, and global price volatility.
The agriculture sector is Zimbabwe’s second top foreign currency earner, after mining, driven by tobacco and cotton exports.
In its new 2025 Import & Export Trade Analysis report, Buy Zimbabwe noted that export earnings increased from US$6,06 billion in 2021 to US$9,71 billion by 2025.
The growth for last year was driven by higher semi-manufactures, nickel mattes, and tobacco exports, which together accounted for nearly three-quarters of total receipts.
Increased tobacco exports benefitted from better rains during the 2024/25 agricultural season, leading to a surge in sales to 353,01 million kilogrammes generating US$1,1 billion, with the harvest up 52,92% over the prior season.
However, over the same period, imports climbed from US$7,37 billion to US$10,11 billion, driven largely by energy-related products including diesel, petrol, liquefied petroleum gas and electricity, as well as key food commodities and fertilisers.
Buy Zimbabwe identified a structural challenge that has left farmers vulnerable to foreign currency shortages, supply chain disruptions, and global price volatility.
“Zimbabwe’s trade profile between January and December 2025 reveals a dual trend: rising tobacco exports alongside rising fertiliser imports,” the report said.
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Tobacco remained one of the country’s most competitive export crops, with earnings climbing from US$130 million in January to a peak of US$260 million in November, before slightly easing to US$220 million in December.
“This strong performance generated substantial foreign currency inflows, underscoring tobacco’s role as a pillar of export competitiveness.”
Buy Zimbabwe added that sustaining and expanding this sector depended heavily on fertiliser imports.
This fluctuated sharply starting at US$21,8 million in January, dipping to US$8,1 million in February, then surging to US$61,5 million in November before moderating to US$31,5 million in December.
“This imbalance highlights a structural challenge: agriculture is a strength, but its productivity is tied to external inputs rather than locally manufactured fertilisers,” the report said.
Instead of capturing the full value chain from fertiliser manufacturing to crop processing much of the value leaks abroad.”
Buy Zimbabwe said the rise in tobacco exports was a positive sign of competitiveness, but that the simultaneous rise in fertiliser imports underscored the cost of not building strong local industries.
The imbalance is set to continue for the current 2025/26 season, as over 162 000 hectares of tobacco have been planted, a record for Zimbabwe and 42% above last season.
“Without greater support for local manufacturing and agricultural input production, Zimbabwe risks remaining locked in a cycle where export earnings are offset by import dependency, limiting the transformative impact of its strongest sectors,” the report added.
“Building domestic fertiliser capacity and promoting crop substitution would not only reduce maize import reliance but also ensure that tobacco’s foreign currency inflows translate into lasting economic resilience.”
The report found that the same imbalance applied to food security, as while Zimbabwe imports maize, 4,5% of the October–December 2025 imports, and edible oils, it exports raw or semi-processed tobacco leaf, with little beneficiation or local consumption.
“This cycle means the country spends forex on inputs and staples while earning forex from exports, but without retaining maximum value.”
Between 2024 and 2025, Zimbabwe’s import profile reveals a clear structural transformation in food and agricultural supply.
“Overall imports rose significantly, with strong growth in live animals, meat, oilseeds, and dairy, while cereals declined. Poultry and swine emerged as the backbone of protein supply, both live and processed, while bovine and horses lost ground,” Buy Zimbabwe said.
“Meat imports nearly doubled, dominated by poultry, which now accounts for more than 90% of total meat imports. Cereals shifted away from maize and rice toward wheat and sorghum, reflecting diversification and reduced reliance on traditional staples.”
The report said oilseed imports expanded sharply, led by soya beans and processed oilseed meals, supporting feed and processing industries aligned with the growth in poultry and swine.
“Dairy imports also surged, with concentrated milk, cheese, and eggs forming the core, while niche products like honey and fermented dairy gained traction,” Buy Zimbabwe said.
“Taken together, these trends show Zimbabwe moving away from raw staples toward processed, diversified, and protein-rich imports, signalling both changing consumer preferences and industrial needs.”
The local government is currently trying to promote local beneficiation and value addition.
Buy Zimbabwe suggested that to achieve economic resilience, the country must prioritise local manufacturing and reduce its dependency on external inputs for its key agricultural sectors.
