Motoring: What is the future of manual transmission cars?

By Stanley Makombe | 7h ago

The majority of the older generation motorists are more familiar with the manual transmission as compared to the automatic version.

I always see that they still prefer to the same transmission even when trying to buy the modern cars despite the advantages the automatic offers compared to the manual.

It is therefore strategic to have a conversation around this matter and table the facts in relation to the current manufacturing treads.

In countries such as Australia, Japan, and the USA have mostly done away with manual options.

Nowadays, there’s an even more pressing topic driving the debate in which by 2035, the manual transmission cars won’t be allowed to be sold on all petrol and diesel engine cars in these countries.

So that by default, rules out manual cars, as the electric cars all comes in automatic transmission.

To put it into the right perspective we should also look at what is happening within South Africa which is the hub of manufacturing cars for the African market accounting for 54% of the entire continent’s requirements.

From far back in 2013, the manual gearbox transmission car sales accounted for a whopping 77% of all new light-vehicle sales in South Africa but things have taken a huge turn over the years and by 2023 it has dropped to 51% only.

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Based on these facts it clearly looks like the new trajectory, with the automatic transmission taking the biggest market share in the future.

In line with global trends, this phenomenon has been partly driven by vastly improved gearbox designs and indeed by manufacturers striving to meet ever-stricter emissions regulations in certain parts of the world (many modern autos are more efficient than manuals, after all).

Even several semi-autonomous driving functions are far simpler to implement on auto-equipped cars.

Of course, there’s also the convenience factor, which has grown increasingly relevant as local roads have become more and more congested; even the staunch fans of the manual gearbox will admit it’s no fun working a clutch pedal in multiple-hour traffic jams.

The rise of the dual-clutch transmission, too, has surely played a role here, as has the penetration of the automated manual gearbox in the local budget-car segment.

So the reality is that the manual cars are already in decline in both production and popularity from among the countries that supply us here in Zimbabwe and other African countries.

I, therefore, want to encourage the older generation drivers to take this as reality that automatic transmission cars are largely going to be the way to drive. With this reality it therefore calls for a mindset shift in order for you to embrace it and conform accordingly.

Apparently l am still receiving calls from customers asking for a 2015 Honda Fit or 2015 Toyota Land cruiser Prado or Toyota Rav4 with a manual gearbox transmission.

I know that it may be possible on some models coming from South Africa but if it a Japanese model there is no way one can get a manual gearbox on such models.

Even Toyota Corporation as a company is also shifting towards producing more and more automatic transmission cars in predominantly manual transmission segments like they did with the launch of the 2024 Toyota Landcruiser 79 series double cabin.

I also think that the government should also now start allowing the new drivers to apply for a driving license test with an automatic transmission.

I am aware that here in Zimbabwe one may only be allowed to do a road test using an automatic transmission car on the strength of a doctor’s letter.

It is not matching the reality on the ground because it means that the majority of drivers are being tested with a manual gearbox but instantly drive an automatic transmission car.

In other African countries such as South Africa, Kenya and Uganda one can choose automatic or manual transmission driving test examination.

I however do understand that there are those staunch manual transmission drivers who cannot shift to automatic.

I know for real that they are so proud of their choice of transmission on the strength of offering better control, a better driving experience and fuel efficiency.

The good side of things is that you can keep this alive by looking for the older car models when thinking of upgrading.

There is no need to panic about the possible ban on the selling of manual transmission cars from 2035 because right now it is only the theory of the strategy and it also doesn’t stop anyone from driving those that are already on the roads.

So the future of manual transmission cars is getting smaller on the new cars but driving those already available is an open “cheque”.

*Stanley Makombe has 25 years of experience in the motor industry, currently handling vehicle imports from Japan, Thailand, the UK, and South Africa into African countries. He is writing in his capacity and can be contacted on +254 743 900 590, on X @Stan_Carsales, email: [email protected], www.stanleymakombe.com