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‘Mnangagwa to become president’

PROSPECTS of a government led by current Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa are looking brighter now than ever before and Zimbabweans must brace themselves for his rule, analysts have said.

Richard Chidza

But Ngwena [crocodile], as Mnangagwa is known in political circles, is skirting on thin ice. He will have to contend with a few hurdles before he takes up residence at State House.

Since joining Zanu PF’s liberation war council Dare ReChimurenga in 1977 during the anti-colonial war that brought majority rule,Mnangagwa has remained by President Robert Mugabe’s side.

He is one of the longest serving cabinet ministers to date and despite a short break in which he served as Speaker of the National Assembly, the Midlands-born politician is a Mugabe loyalist through and through.

All things being equal, University of Zimbabwe lecturer, Professor Eldred Masunungure says he thinks Mnangagwa is literally a heart-beat away from power.

“His chances are very good. I would put them at over 60%. The probability is high despite the lack of clarity around the Zanu PF constitution and Mugabe’s silence on the matter. We should not forget that Mnangagwa has been there and [has] seen everything. He has been by Mugabe’s side for nearly 40 years now and that is a big plus for him.”

He also said China was likely to have a say on who became Zimbabwe’s first post-Mugabe leader.

“The Chinese remain a major factor in the succession matrix although they may not be the final determinant. I feel they will be a force in the king-making or queen-making job in Zimbabwe. The West, I think, has become impotent and I
am not sure if they will be a factor anymore after the Mujuru fiasco.

“They were implicated in the messy job to parachute Mujuru into Mugabe’s job and she got burnt and burnt badly. So they have tried to wade into the Zanu PF dogfight but the consequences have been devastating, especially for Mujuru and for them diplomatically,” he said.

As regards the economic and governance trajectory that Mnangagwa would take as new leader, Masunungure warned of a dictatorship harsher than Mugabe’s.

“Mnangagwa is more likely to be East leaning in terms of his development trajectory. The Beijing Consensus or Chinese Model of development is likely to be his anchor.

There is already a predisposition towards a market economy from the recent pronouncements made by both treasury chief Patrick Chinamasa and Mnangagwa himself.”

The Standard is reliably informed that Mnangagwa recently told the Zanu PF politburo, following his visit to Belarus that “vanhu vanofanigwa kutongwa” loosely translated to mean “people should be ruled, not governed”.

“This is what is happening in Belarus and we should do it here.It is working,” Mnangagwa reportedly said.

Political analyst Pedzisai Ruhanya,however, said Mnangagwa’s chances were slim and probably as good as those of axed former vicepresident Joice Mujuru in the race to succeed Mugabe.

“Mnangagwa’s chances are as good as the likelihood of Mujuru taking over from Mugabe. His chances are not certain at all. We can never be sure. It is not a given because there are contestations and contradictions already in the party.

“Mujuru was in a better position; she had political mass, was elected at congress while Mnangagwa was appointed. He is weaker and probably the weakest of all the country’s vice-presidents thus far. Mnangagwa can be disappointed
overnight,” Ruhanya said.

He said a Mnangagwa presidency would not be much different from Mugabe’s 35 year-old rule, unless Zanu PF went
through a metamorphosis.

“What matters is not the individual but whether the whole institution is ready to reform,” Ruhanya said.

Ibbo Mandaza a publisher and political scientist agreed and went even further to indicate that the fight for Mugabe’s
throne was very much still on.

“Things are fluid at the moment;far from definite. The dynamics within Zanu PF and the State are so fluid that it is very difficult for anyone to predict what will happen. A Mnangagwa presidency is also extremely dependent on whether Mugabe decides to leave office and when he decides to do so,” Mandaza said.

He said that both the national and party constitutions were vague on the processes that would take place if Mugabe were to die in office or decided to resign.

With reports that both the West and the East, especially China, seem to be warming up to an inevitable take-over by Mnangagwa,Mandaza said Zimbabweans should vigorously campaign for a return to legitimate political contestation.

Mandaza warned of an impending implosion.

Diplomatic sources claim a group of envoys commonly referred to as the “Fishmongers” that comprises ambassadors
from Australia, Britain, the US,Germany and the European Union had accepted that Mnangagwa would take over from Mugabe and are already in hushed preparations for a post-Mugabe era.

9 Responses to ‘Mnangagwa to become president’

  1. Madzibaba Joshua August 23, 2015 at 2:16 pm #

    Even if Ngwena had 99 percent chance of taking over,in zanu pf,being very near the presidency and being far away from the presidency is one and the same thing.Ask the Mujurus and company they will tell you that one slight misstep and you will be sliding down a very slippery slope.
    In the event that Ngwena takes over,if at all he takes over,he might decide to chart his own path.I am basing my views on what has happened before in the other liberation movements in the region.
    In Mozambique when Samora Machel died,Joaquim Chissano,a long time member of Frelimo took over.Chissano made a u-turn and abandoned the marxist leninist socialism/communism policies and started implementing market reforms.He dismantled and privatised/commercialised state parastatals.Armando Guebuza, who took over from Chissano also continued with market reforms and it looks like Felipe Nyussi is continuing with the same business friendly policies.It is important to note that Chissano,Guebuza and Nyussi were members of Machel’s inner circle.The reality on the ground when Chissano took over,forced him to make an about turn on policy.
    In Tanzania,when Mwalimu Nyerere died,Ali Hassan Mwinyi took over,he abandoned the Ujamaa policy of Chama Cha Mapinduzi and started market reforms.Even the former marxist leninist MPLA of Angola have abandoned marxism for free market enterprise.
    However only time will tell which direction zanu pf will take in the near future,but the liberation parties that have reformed and embraced market reforms have survived and continue to dorminate but those that failed to reform have become shadows of their former selves.

  2. KULUMANI MAGIYA August 23, 2015 at 3:38 pm #

    Leave Ngwena alone,the only truth of cause is that Ngwena is loyal to his party.He is also very displined than anyone coming second to Gushungo.He is also very inteligent in what ever he does.He also respects his bosses and does not have a big mouth.Why are people talking about Ngwena when he himself is silent,pane nyaya apa.I think Ngwena is interested in his new job of assisting the President not taking over from the President.Above all he is a hard worker and is consistant and frank.Politicians must learn good principles from him rather criticising the croc.look at all those weak brains who thought of taking power from their bosses using dangerous means have fallen by the way side and Ngwena as a lawyer knows that.To Ngwena well done continue to respect your boss may be you can be given another better task.Good luck.

  3. Jonathiel Moyo August 23, 2015 at 4:01 pm #

    Are these pple talking about taking over as leader of ZanuPF ? or Zimbabwe? For him to rule Zimbabwe he should win an election which is free and fair ,period.

  4. Charles Frizell August 23, 2015 at 4:45 pm #

    But . . . can a Zanoid ever win a “free and fair” election, of any kind? I seriously doubt that

  5. Oto August 24, 2015 at 9:33 am #

    Kukorokoza anenge asiira ani

  6. maita August 24, 2015 at 2:42 pm #

    ZanuPf in its entirety needs to reform completely from the rag tag, gangster like party to a moderm developmental oriented party for us to have a level headed leader in that party. It has cultured gangsterism and everybody in that party thinks he has a right to anything including our lives and families.

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  8. mudhara August 25, 2015 at 12:59 pm #

    These analysts are day dreaming , if China and the West have a say in our future president then we are still colonized , there will be an acting president or the speaker of parliament will take over for 90 days , and there will be a congress in Zanu PF to choose the would be their presidential candidate not China or the West . The only person who can abuse the constitution is Mugabe because of his divide and rule tactic if he lesves you will see change both in Zanu PF and in the country , no one can say a word to his face but Ngwena was already told bullshit in his face by Jonso , so don’t expect that to chance , there will be dog it dog after that old evil has gone but it will be good for democracy , all what the analysts have said is their opinion .

  9. froclejudr August 29, 2015 at 10:04 am #

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