President Robert Mugabe may find himself in a cryptic political quandary on his return from the Far East where he has been on holiday with his family.
BY SILENCE CHARUMBIRA
Events obtaining back home demand that he makes serious decisions immediately upon his return, to save his Zanu PF party from further fragmentation, analysts said last week.
Mugabe is expected to come back this week as he warms up to take over the reins of the African Union.
Analysts yesterday said Mugabe would have to deal with the emerging forces of resistance to his recent curious political decisions, advised by the so-called Gang of Four (G4) allegedly comprising Jonathan Moyo, Oppah Muchinguri, Patrick Zhuwao and Saviour Kasukuwere — hand-led by the First Lady, Grace Mugabe. Whatever move Mugabe takes, analysts say, it has the potential to alienate him from important sections of the party.
The Gang of Four is now alleged to be wary of the elevation of Mnangagwa to the VP post. They are said to be accusing the Justice minister of failing to recognise their efforts in the annihilation of former VP Joice Mujuru and her supporters. While it read like a flawless script in December when Mugabe purged his perceived nemesis Mujuru, the honeymoon appears to have abruptly ended for the nonagenarian leader.
Social commentator Maxwell Saungweme said Mugabe was likely going to censure the G4 to avoid further divisions.
“Probably, what will happen now is that there could be attempts to censure the G4. Mugabe really faces a catch-22 situation here. While it is not clear what will happen to the shambolic Zanu PF, one thing is certain — the government business is at a standstill due to polarisation and divisions in Zanu PF. Service delivery will continue to suffer and Zimbabweans will continue to bear the brunt,” said Saungweme.
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Saungweme however said it was hard for Mugabe to reconcile with Mujuru considering that he was now being controlled by his wife Grace.
“I think it is quite hard for anyone to predict what Mugabe will do as the situation in Zimbabwe and in Zanu PF is not normal and Mugabe behaves unpredictably and his decisions are inconsistent,” he said.
“One thing for sure is that the Mujuru faction was dealt a heavy blow. Given that the ageing Mugabe is being controlled in a big way by his energetic wife, it is hard to see any reconciliation with the Mujuru faction. The Mujuru faction may however have a comeback once Mugabe leaves.”
Zanu PF’s congress in December sealed Mujuru’s fate, at least for now, as well as that of other close lieutenants like Didymus Mutasa and former party spokesperson Rugare Gumbo.
Political analyst Ibbo Mandaza said Mugabe will be in a dilemma when he comes back as he would have to face the unenviable task of bringing together mortal foes in his party.
“He will be between a rock and a hard surface. Mugabe will be under pressure from the victorious faction to become more vindictive and crush the Mujuru faction completely. But doing so would also means widening divisions in the party. He will need to reach out to his wounded former lieutenants like secretary for administration Mutasa and other party hawks for unity,” said Mandaza.
“The Mnangagwa faction will definitely persist with the course of action that he has taken — to be vindictive against the Mujuru faction. But Mugabe, if he is rational, he will try to see unity in the party.”
Mandaza said Mugabe is likely going to reshuffle his Cabinet upon his return from his vacation. “The reshuffle will either crush the Mujuru faction completely or will seek to reach out to his wounded colleagues for the sake of unity, a move the Mnangagwa faction will most likely object to, leaving him in a fix,” he said.
“He will likely soften his stance towards the old guys, or he will get even more ruthless in dealing them the deathly blow,” added Mandaza. He said Mugabe might also be under pressure to correct the legal flaws of the December congress taking into account that Sadc leaders are seized with the matter after Mutasa wrote a letter to them intending to have the December congress nullified. Lecturer at the Kent Law School in UK Alex Magaisa said the President was unlikely to upset the current setup as he benefits from the chaos.
He said Mugabe was, above all, worried about securing the future of his young family. “I do not think President Mugabe will upset the new arrangement. The bickering below him suits him as he thrives on deflecting attention from himself so that the ones below spend time fighting each other,” said Magaisa.
“They are not a direct threat to him. His main interest is securing a future for his young family and all Mnangagwa has to do is to reassure him that his family will be safe with him.” Magaisa said Mujuru’s undoing was that she probably failed to give these assurances and may have threatened the family’s future in the post-Mugabe era.
He said within the party they will try to cover the cracks by offering cake to some of those who previously aligned with Mujuru so as to further isolate her.
“These people are likely to accept offers if given for purposes of self-preservation. I suspect the First Lady will land a Cabinet post, which will promote her political apprenticeship and enhance her newly-found political foothold,” Magaisa said
