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Likely scenarios of the post election era

THE presidential election is now just 10 days away, and barring any unforeseeable mishaps, Zimbabweans will soon know who is going to occupy the State House for the next five years.

REPORT BY PATRICE MAKOVA

The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (Zec) has promised it will announce the result of the presidential election within five days, after the poll.

The top contenders in the watershed polls are President Robert Mugabe of Zanu PF whose 33-year rule is under threat from Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai of MDC-T. 

The smaller formation of the MDC led by Professor Welshman Ncube is however warning of an upset.

Analysts say if Mugabe wins, no radical transformation is expected, while a victory by Tsvangirai may change the course of the nation forever.

Political analyst, Gift Mambipiri said a Zanu PF win would likely set the country on an edge for the next six or more months until the party settles its succession matrix.

He said in the meantime, the destiny of the country would be tied to the fate of the party’s leadership dynamics.

“The succession debate has proved to be a hot potato over the years. It is now a time bomb. The formula used to solve this succession equation, and the result, will determine whether we proceed to Canaan [freedom], or regress to Egypt [bondage],” said Mambipiri. But, he said, the odds were heavily stacked against a clean succession formula.

Mambipiri sees the succession flames being stoked from deep within the party even after a Zanu PF win, warning “those flames will consume every other part of our national fabric.”

Two factions in Zanu PF are battling to succeed 89-year-old Mugabe. One is loyal to vice-President Joice Mujuru and the other has links to Defence minister Emmerson Mnangagwa.

Both Mujuru and Mnangagwa have however repeatedly denied leading factions or harbouring presidential ambitions. Mambipiri said if the MDC-T wins, Tsvangirai would be lucky to assume power.

He said if he does, nothing material would change in the development discourse of the country in the first years, because Zanu PF has in the last 33 years spread its wings into every other aspect of people’s lives.

“To ‘de-Zanunise’ the state structures to facilitate a new governance language will be a mammoth task, yet the country desperately needs to chart a new course,” said Mambipiri.

University of Zimbabwe political science lecturer, Shakespear Hamauswa said a win by either of the two main candidates was tricky.

However, he said Tsvangirai had better potential as he has been learning from Zanu PF’s mistakes. Hamauswa said with Tsvangirai’s “commitment” to curb corruption and promote good governance, a new and transformed Zimbabwe was possible.

“He has been in government under the shadow of Zanu PF, thus given the chance to rule alone the systems of governance will be transformed for the better,” he said.

Hamauswa said the MDC-T was unlikely to issue “reckless” statements that would invite the security chiefs to the electoral process like what they did in 2008.

He said if the MDC-T was prepared to give a safe exit package to the Zanu PF hardliners and security chiefs, stability would be guaranteed.

“Thus they have to be strong enough to tell the world that an eye for an eye will not be possible in Zimbabwe. A gradual reform will make MDC’s rule and governance easier,” said the political scientist.

He said the international community was unlikely to endorse Mugabe’s victory, especially considering the chaotic special voting process.

Hamauswa said Zanu PF was likely to further frighten potential investors, not only foreign, but also domestic ones.

He said no one would invest in a country where polices were not predictable.

“In terms of bringing the much needed change to the country, Zanu PF is promising nothing, this is clear from their campaign message on television that is full of hate and derogatory statements,” said Hamauswa. 

“Besides deriding Tsvangirai, we are not aware as to what the Zanu PF government will have for media reforms, for home-seekers or for civil servants.”

He said Zanu PF also threatened to bring back the Zimbabwean dollar and to pull out of Sadc, a move that would further alienate the country from the community of nations.

“So a country with friends from the East only will not be able to survive economically, it will be like putting all eggs into one basket,” said Hamauswa.

The Zanu PF manifesto focuses on indigenisation and economic empowerment, promising to create 2,2 million jobs over the next five years by unlocking value from idle assets worth at least US$1,8 trillion of mineral claims or reserves.

The MDC-T manifesto on the other hand, promises to create one million jobs by 2018 and a US$100 billion economy by 2014.

It focuses on investment entrepreneurship, job creation, rural development and poverty alleviation.

zanu pf win will not change much — analyst

Commenting on the possible outcomes of the elections, political analyst Tamuka Chirimambowa said a Mugabe win would see the continuation of the current indigenisation and economic empowerment polices which were benefitting only the elite and those closely connected to Zanu PF.

He said on the other hand, if Tsvangirai won, his government was likely to opt for a broad-based empowerment programme as espoused in the MDC-T’s Agenda for Real Transformation (ART) and Jobs, Upliftment, Investment, Capital and Environment (Juice) economic plan.

Chirimambowa said the MDC-T was talking of both investment and creation of jobs as not everyone has the capacity to start a company.

“It’s a fallacy to say that everyone can own a company. You need to strike a balance between creating jobs and investment,” he said.

20 Responses to Likely scenarios of the post election era

  1. Pasipanodya July 21, 2013 at 1:33 pm #

    Good analysis except you left the victory of ZPF will immediately take us back to the Zim dollar era, and the continued looting of diamonds whilst blaming everything on sanctions.
    Every cent on the fiscus will be channelled to funding the unproducing upcoming farmers who year to year demand funding but on the ground produce nothing but weeds. Unofficially they will be on the gvt payroll due to their year to year request for funds and less money will be given to civil servants.

    • Betty July 23, 2013 at 8:27 am #

      MY ADVICE: Do something for yourself, for your beloved family. Don’t waste your time talking about politics while others are enjoying their lives with money without politics. . See how this Zimbabwean poor woman became a millionaire just by buying and selling accident cars, Very interesting idea. Go to (USED dot CO) not dot com, to see the methods and companies she was using (USED dot CO) not dot com. It is a very simple idea but a very powerful one. Wake up Africans

  2. ganjaman July 21, 2013 at 1:59 pm #

    so in short it means zimbabweans must wise up and vote for a better future for the nxt generations. Its simple & easy to tell who is better. remember zim dollar days.

  3. Daidzayi Vamwe July 21, 2013 at 2:09 pm #

    Zanu Pf is also aware that it has nothing to offer the nation except HATE to Europe, MDC, Nelson Mandela, USA etc. What surprises us; people at Zanu Pf never love themselves.

  4. Silvester Matambo July 21, 2013 at 2:28 pm #

    Noone said the zimdollar will be returned. Its all lies, may the curse of the Lord be on Hamauswa for lying. May the Lord humiliate the Mdc puppets and its goblins by granting Zanu Pf a landslide win in the coming elections.

    • Hasu July 21, 2013 at 3:51 pm #

      We will get to a point that we shall say no, we need to get back our Zimbabwean dollar.

      “We shall do that and strengthen our dollar. We can strengthen it through gold if we have the gold that is kept at the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe,” he said.

      • magame July 21, 2013 at 8:23 pm #

        One wonders why mugabe did not defend the zimdollar with the abundant gold reserves when it crushed on the black friday in nov 1997 well before the formation of the mdc and the imposition of so called sanctions. Too late madhala. Only people with chicken memory will be hoodwinked by this lot.

    • chadiwa July 21, 2013 at 10:32 pm #

      Zanu can only win by rigging.There is nowhere is this world zanu can win elections,and you know that.So stop dreaming.

    • Ryan July 29, 2013 at 8:22 am #

      Silvester Matambo is quite the intellectual…

  5. zanu yaora July 21, 2013 at 3:48 pm #

    indeed president Mugabe said it at the zanu manifesto launch that he had already talked to Gono about the return of the zimdollar.

  6. jabulanikulekani July 21, 2013 at 6:14 pm #

    the other definite thing is A zanu pf win would see the country militarised and much of the expenditure would be on military hardware.

  7. Mental Gymnastics July 21, 2013 at 6:15 pm #

    Kana manzwa izwi raShe muzawomesa moyo yenyu mapinda mu ‘polling booth’! Tarirai Jesu amire pamukova. Jesu amire pakutonga !

  8. Mental Gymnastics July 21, 2013 at 6:16 pm #

    Kana manzwa izwi raShe muzawomesa moyo yenyu mapinda mu ‘polling booth’! Tarirai Jesu amire pamukova. Jesu amire pakutonga ! !

  9. magame July 21, 2013 at 8:26 pm #

    Black friday nov 1997. Why did they not use the abundant gold reserves to defend the zim dollar then. Mind you this was before the formation of the mdc and the imposition of so called sanctions.

  10. mapungubwe dundilabazwele July 21, 2013 at 9:36 pm #

    It is known that in Zimbabwe, the winer of elections does not rule the country; but the loser.

  11. mIRA July 22, 2013 at 12:36 pm #

    the proverbial hard place and rock scenario

    zanu pf win – another contested election

    mdc win – another contested win and possibly civil war

  12. Stop-a-Thief July 25, 2013 at 10:37 pm #

    VICTORY POEM PART 6:
    Zimbabweans awaiting Mugabe to lose…
    All thirsty to cheer victory with a JUICE…
    Goebels Charambamanheru is despondent….
    Knowing Zimbabweans are finally independent…
    He screams, what has hit us?…
    While Zimbabweans sing ‘how nice!’…
    Too late to change your old 3-legged horse…
    We knew this would happen ofcourse?…
    Jonathan once warned, retire from old age…
    Before joining Zanupf’s Stone Age…
    You could now be Save’s garden boy…
    After you mocked him ‘Teaboy’…
    Hezvo Machinja voti bwaaa….
    Kumira nemafaro kuti twaa.

  13. Stop-a-Thief July 25, 2013 at 10:38 pm #

    VICTORY POEM PART 7:
    Hekani waro hombarume…
    Ngatisimudze minwe…
    Hamuwone hazvisi cool…
    Kutongwa naVasekuru…
    Gore rino anochiwona…
    Kuchemera mai vake Bona…
    Simukai tinovhota…
    MaZanu abva adhota…

  14. Mageja Siziba July 29, 2013 at 12:35 am #

    I forecast a ZANU -PF landslide. One year down the line, a change of guard takes place. Meanwhile an intense implementation of the manifesto promises starting with social & economic infrastructural programmes – water, sanitation, roads, housing, irrigation, electricity, etc takes place. This will be followed by addressing issues in the productive sectors of the economy-agriculture, manufacturing, mining, tourism, construction, etc. Focus will be on food production, value addition for exports, introduction & adaptation of imported technology. The necessary reforms in education will be embarked on to establish a knowledge based economy. Local & foreign capital will be mobilized to intensify & accelerate the indigenization & economic empowerment programmes to create the necessary production capacity, employment & confidence to be our own development liberators.

  15. Stop-a-Thief July 30, 2013 at 1:54 pm #

    FINAL VICTORY POEM PART 10:
    Finally we got the bull by the horns…
    And long-awaited freedom beckons…
    Tomorrow we’ll see who’s Big Daddy…
    Bhora rakaponja haripindi mugedhi…
    The road to freedom has been rough…
    Until we finally said “enough”…
    Waving bye-bye to a 90-year old…
    Whose departure is as good as gold…
    He lingered like a bad smell…
    But Zimbabweans finally ring the bell…
    Smiles all over their brave faces…
    Proud they’ve removed the nutcases…
    And choosing proper aces…
    No more chefs & comrades…
    No more toyi-toyi & night raids…
    We salute our women & men…
    For bringing change by a mere pen.

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