The battle to succeed President Emmerson Mnangagwa has turned murky amid manoeuvres by his loyalists to decide Zimbabwe’s next leader, but analysts are adamant that Vice President Constantino Chiwenga remains the front runner.
Chiwenga, who led the coup that toppled long-time ruler Robert Mugabe eight years ago, is seen as the primary target of the controversial Constitutional Amendment Bill No. 3 (CAB3), which seeks to keep Mnangagwa in power until 2030.
The 83-year-old ruler’s loyalists reportedly intend to use this presidential term extension to lay the groundwork for businessman Kudakwashe Tagwirei to take over as Zanu PF leader and the next president, effectively sidelining Chiwenga.
While Tagwirei has previously denied harbouring presidential ambitions, a leaked audio last week laid bare plans to torpedo the former army commander in the succession race.
The recording re-ignited debate on the Mnangagwa succession amid revelations that those behind CAB3 believe the businessman is now Mnangagwa’s obvious successor.
However, analysts told The Standard that those discounting Chiwenga fail to understand Zanu PF politics.
Steven Chan, a professor of world politics at the University of London, argued that Tagwirei is not in the presidential race.
“I think there is only a small chance. Tagwirei is very ambitious, but even he must know he is unelectable with the public at large,” Chan said.
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“A man that rich in a country that remains poor would hardly enhance the Zanu PF message that it exists for the people — even after liberating them. “Tagwirei would have to donate several million dollars to charity to gain the public reputation he needs”.
Sydicks Muradzikwa, a political governance analyst, expressed doubt that Tagwirei would eventually lead Zanu PF, noting that while he is wealthy and possesses access to powerful networks around Mnangagwa, he remains relatively new to formal Zanu PF politics.
“In that party, money matters, but history matters, too,” Muradzikwa said.
“He lacks liberation war credentials, military roots, or a long record within the party structures.
“That makes him powerful as a financier and possible kingmaker, but not yet a natural presidential candidate.”
Muradzikwa added that the old guard would not easily accept him, as many senior Zanu PF figures believe leadership must come from those who suffered for the party or served for decades.
To the old guard, Tagwirei may appear to be someone being pushed upward too quickly because of his wealth, he said.
“That would create suspicion, resistance, and quiet sabotage,” Muradzikwa said. “Zanu PF has always treated succession as a controlled process, not an open race.
“The party prefers deals, pressure, loyalty tests, and rule changes. Even if new names like Tagwirei enter the picture, the old habits remain.”
Muradzikwa argued it is too early to write off Chiwenga, a war veteran and key figure behind the 2017 transition.
“His power does not come mainly from money. It comes from military history, liberation credentials, and networks inside the security and veteran community,” he said. “Even if he looks cornered politically, he still represents a power centre that Zanu PF cannot simply ignore.”
The tension in the succession debate arises from a clash of influences: Mnangagwa and Tagwirei wield money and patronage, while Chiwenga holds liberation history and command authority.
Ultimately, it is a question of whether money can defeat the old military-liberation order inside Zanu PF. Ricky Mukonza, a professor at Tshwane University of Technology, suggested that the outcome may depend on court cases and the actions of CAB3 opponents.
“We know that Vice President Chiwenga is said to be an opponent, and General Sanyatwe is also mentioned as another brave official who opposed it,” Mukonza said.
He noted that if the party moves toward a CAB4, it would be a clear sign they are "going after the general's head".
“An appropriate response from the general would likely come at that time because he would be fighting for his life. We know the last time the general was put under threat by the Mugabe regime, he rose to the occasion and ushered in the current administration”.
Gideon Chitanga, a visiting professor at Munich’s Ludwig Maximilians Universität, added that CAB3 has complicated the succession matrix.
He said while it was once predictable that Chiwenga would succeed Mnangagwa through a peaceful transition, the push for a term extension has intensified internal contestation, leaving the party and government somewhat paralysed.
Chitanga concluded that Tagwirei is unlikely to be a "runaway candidate" who could displace the "historical stockholders" of the ruling party, suggesting that Zanu PF will eventually coalesce around its traditional power structures.
Despite Mnangagwa declaring on multiple occasions last year that he would not stay past 2028, his support for CAB3 suggests he has changed course.
