A deepening maize supply crisis has forced the closure of grain milling operations at one of the biggest industry players and 23 other medium- and small-scale millers in Bulawayo, raising urgent concerns about food security in the southern region.
The shutdowns come as meteorological agencies warn of a looming Super El Niño that threatens to devastate the 2026/27 agricultural season, compounding existing supply constraints and raising fears of a protracted food crisis.
A situation report from the southern region by millers covering Bulawayo, Matabeleland North and Matabeleland South said the availability of locally produced maize had declined significantly, affecting millers' ability to maintain consistent production and build adequate reserves.
“The grain milling sector in the southern region is currently experiencing operational challenges due to declining availability of locally produced maize,” the report said.
The report said that millers were struggling to find sufficient maize despite expectations of a bumper harvest, contradicting government claims of a national surplus.
The regional chairman of millers in the southern region, retired Major Moyo, expressed concern over what he described as inadequate attention to the region by the Ministry of Agriculture.
The report was circulated to senior government and ruling Zanu PF officials, including Industry and Commerce minister, Mangaliso Ndlovu, his deputy, Raji Modi, as well as Bulawayo Provincial Affairs minister, Judith Ncube, and permanent secretaries in the agriculture and industry ministries.
However, the report does not provide figures for current maize stocks, the number of affected consumers or the duration of the reported closures.
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Quality concerns have also emerged, with some locally supplied maize affected by insect infestation, increasing operational costs as millers introduce additional measures to ensure grain is suitable for human consumption, according to the report.
Millers have also raised strong objections to levies introduced through Statutory Instrument 87 of 2025.
The levies, which came into effect in April 2026, require an upfront payment of US$40 per tonne on imported maize.
Millers said the requirement makes it difficult to access imported maize under the 30- to 60-day payment terms previously available to them.
The report argued that the rationale for using the levy to equalise the price of imported maize with locally produced maize was no longer applicable because local supplies had declined.
Industry associations have warned that the levies could trigger significant price increases, suggesting that a 10kg bag of roller meal could rise from US$4.60 to US$5.20 — a 13% increase — and disproportionately affect Matabeleland provinces, where local maize production has historically struggled to meet demand.
The crisis is unfolding against a backdrop of alarming climate forecasts.
The United States Climate Prediction Centre and other agencies estimate a roughly two-in-three probability of a very strong El Niño peaking between November 2026 and January 2027, at a time when the country’s summer crops will be establishing and filling grain.
Climatologists warn the 2026/27 cycle could be a Super El Niño, potentially rivalling the destructive events of 2015/16 and 1997/98 that devastated regional harvests.
Greenhouse gas experts have said that temperatures could be 2°C to 4°C above historical averages, with climate change having already elevated the global baseline by roughly 1.4°C.
The 2018–19 heatwave in Matabeleland South breached normal March highs by 2°C to 4°C, causing widespread maize failure.
The 2023–24 El Niño-induced drought was even worse, with daytime temperatures running 2°C to 8°C above the national average, hotspots reaching 44°C, and over 9 000 cattle dying from drought and heat.
The drought devastated agriculture, forcing millions to require food assistance and dragging national economic growth below 2% in 2024.
Added to that, 11 of the last 13 El Niño events since 1982 have produced below-trend maize yields.
The government has unveiled a six-point strategy to cushion the country against a potential El Niño-induced drought, including expanding the strategic grain reserve, accelerating climate-smart agriculture, and targeting at least 75 000 hectares of irrigated maize production.
The Agriculture minister, Anxious Masuka, has insisted: “Zimbabwe is very well prepared.”
However, analysts warn that over 90% of the country's cropping remains rain-fed, leaving the food system critically exposed to the confirmed El Niño.
